~Vulnerabilities and structural challenges must be addressed~

WILLEMSTAD/PHILIPSBURG:--- The monetary union experienced strong economic activity in 2025, driven by robust tourism performance. While economic growth in Curaçao and Sint Maarten is expected to continue over the forecasted horizon, both economies remain highly vulnerable to external shocks. As small, open and import-dependent island states, they remain sensitive to fluctuations in global demand and commodity prices, as well as to climate-related disruptions. These longstanding vulnerabilities are now amplified by rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela in the region. “Maintaining stability in this environment requires decisive policy action to reinforce resilience and support a long-term sustainable growth path,” said Richard Doornbosch, President of the Centrale Bank van Curaçao and Sint Maarten, in the CBCS’s December 2025 Economic Bulletin.

Building resilience in the face of rising regional tensions
According to Doornbosch, an escalation of tensions between the United States and Venezuela could affect the monetary union through higher transport and insurance costs, weaker investor confidence, softer tourism demand, and, for Curaçao in particular, renewed migration pressures. While moderate escalation scenarios would likely have a temporary impact, Doornbosch warns that more severe shocks like targeted operations by the United States on Venezuelan territory could generate longer-lasting effects as tourism exports decline more sharply, external financing weakens, and official reserves fall. These findings underscore the need for continued vigilance in safeguarding reserve adequacy, monitoring external vulnerabilities, and maintaining investor confidence.

“To reinforce resilience, Curaçao and Sint Maarten must continue to strengthen their fiscal frameworks by building fiscal buffers and safeguarding debt sustainability, in line with international good practices for small developing states,” Doornbosch emphasized. Sound medium-term fiscal frameworks, anchored in realistic revenue projections, multi-year expenditure ceilings, and clear prioritization of resilient infrastructure, are essential to preserve space for countercyclical actions when shocks materialize. “One important way to strengthen public financial management is to incorporate macroeconomic projections into the preparation of government budgets, thereby improving the alignment between fiscal planning and expected economic conditions and supporting a more efficient and credible budget cycle. The CBCS stands ready to provide the necessary analytical support to the authorities in this process,” he explained.

At the same time, a key domestic priority is to improve execution of the multi-annual public investment programs in both countries, as persistent delays in public projects tend to postpone related private investments and weaken investor confidence. “Strengthening project preparation, procurement, and implementation capacity, including through greater use of digital tools and technical assistance from international partners, would help ensure that planned capital spending translates into visible improvements in connectivity, service delivery, and resilience,” recommended Doornbosch. Parallel reforms to secure the long-term sustainability of health care and social insurance systems have become increasingly urgent, as demographic pressures and rising medical costs could otherwise crowd out productive spending.

Beyond sustainable public finance, strengthening resilience requires a more diversified and regionally connected economy to reduce dependence on a narrow set of sectors and markets. For example, opportunities exist to deepen bilateral trade between Curaçao and Trinidad and Tobago through a partial scope trade agreement that draws on each country’s comparative strengths. “Leveraging this by lowering tariff and non-tariff barriers on complementary products or services, improving customs and standards cooperation, and supporting firms in meeting export requirements could broaden Curaçao’s export base, strengthen supply chains, and reduce vulnerability to shocks in more traditional markets,” he said.
Curaçao and Sint Maarten enter the new year with solid growth prospects, easing inflation, and more substantial external buffers, yet the outlook remains tempered by rising regional security risks, global trade uncertainty, and structural vulnerabilities. “Continued commitment to a focused policy agenda that addresses key vulnerabilities and structural challenges will be essential to reinforce resilience and support a path of sustainable and inclusive growth across the monetary union,” he concluded.
The complete text of the December 2025 Economic Bulletin is available on the CBCS website.

Willemstad December 16, 2025
CENTRALE BANK VAN CURACAO EN SINT MAARTEN

PHILIPSBURG:--- Minister of Finance Ms. Marinka J. Gumbs is pleased to announce that a total of Cg. 477,600 will be paid out to civil servants in December 2025 as a result of the successful first edition of the Government Savings Plan, introduced earlier this year.
The savings plan was officially launched in January 2025, following a direct exchange with civil servants during one of the Minister’s Finance Friday walk-in sessions. It was during one such session that the idea of a voluntary savings initiative for civil servants was raised, discussed, and ultimately developed into policy.
The Government Savings Plan allows participating civil servants to save a fixed monthly amount of Cg voluntarily. 50, Cg. 100, or Cg. 200, which corresponds to a net annual payout of Cg. 600, Cg. 1,200, or Cg. Two thousand four hundred paid out net at the end of the year. For the 2025 edition, 255 civil servants registered for the savings plan, demonstrating strong interest in financial planning and personal savings.
The total payout of Cg. 477,600 that will be paid out this December 2025 reflects the collective commitment of participating civil servants to building financial resilience, while also highlighting the Minister’s role in facilitating practical, people-centered initiatives.
The Minister of Finance welcomes the positive response to the program and emphasizes that this initiative forms part of a broader effort to promote financial awareness, discipline, and long-term stability among civil servants.
Registration for the 2026 Government Savings Plan is currently open until December 31, 2025, and civil servants are encouraged to take advantage of this opportunity to plan ahead and strengthen their personal finances. The Minister of Finance, Ms. Marinka Gumbs, extends her appreciation to all participants for their trust and engagement and looks forward to continuing the savings plan in the year ahead.

PHILIPSBURG:---  On December 16, 2025, the International Panel on Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC), on behalf of partner organisations, including the Ministry of VROMI (Public Housing, Spatial Planning, Environment & Infrastructure), announced the publication of new climate scenarios for Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. Based on scientific data, the scenarios have been designed for 2050 and 2100, and serve to inspire the design of climate adaptation measures and the development of national climate adaptation plans. The publication is the result of a unique collaboration between the national meteorological services of Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten, and the Netherlands.

The scenarios are part of the IPDC’s latest project in the Dutch Caribbean, focused on climate scenarios and digitisation. They will be presented to local authorities in upcoming workshops in Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The project also digitizes historical meteorological data, making past weather information easier to access and use in future climate research.

Background
In recent decades, the world has experienced changes in global mean temperatures driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions. These changes affect people worldwide, including those on small islands such as Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. It is therefore crucial to understand what further climate change may be expected in the remainder of this century.

What will the climate of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten look like in 2050 and 2100?
Climate scenarios have been developed for 2050 and 2100. They have been specifically tailored to the unique local circumstances of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The climate scenarios show how key climate factors may change, such as temperature, wind speed, rainfall, and sea level.

Due to uncertainty in future global climate change, the scenarios present possible outcomes based on key assumptions for global emissions (such as low, mid, and high global emissions) and for regional rainfall (such as a ‘dry’ or a ‘wet’ future). The scenarios do not give probabilities, but the range helps decision-makers see possible risks and plan ahead.  The scenarios are presented in a technical report and a user report. The user report explains the main findings in clear language and figures, making the results more accessible to more people. They also support climate adaptation planning and contribute to the National Adaptation Strategies of Aruba, Curaça,o and Sint Maarten.

Temperatures set to rise
The climate scenarios show that temperatures will continue to rise. In global high-emission scenarios, the average annual temperatures could increase by up to +1.3 degrees Celsius by around 2050, and up to +3.3 degrees Celsius by around 2100. In this scenario, the coldest months, December to February, will be warmer than the current warmest months.  On the other hand, in global low-emission scenarios the temperature increase can be up to +0.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. This difference shows the major impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on our local climate.

Rainfall and drought

Besides temperature change, the scenarios indicate that there may be less rainfall in the future. In the most severe scenarios, average rainfall could be reduced by half by the end of the century compared to today. The more favorable scenarios show only minor drying, and in the case of Sint Maarten, some scenarios even project a slight rainfall increase. This drying trend may result in a longer dry season and less rainfall during the rainy season.

A rising sea level

In the long term, beyond 2100, sea levels driven by global ice melt and other factors could certainly rise by more than 1 meter, even if greenhouse gas emissions were to increase now. Although the sea level rise in the various scenarios will be close together around 2050, there can be strong differences by 2100. This difference once again illustrates the major impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on our local environment.

A call for climate action

The new climate scenarios are not a call to despair but a call to climate action. The range of scenario outputs illustrates the relevance of limiting worldwide greenhouse gas emissions for small islands such as Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. At the local level, the output range provides valuable insights into potential local effects of climate change and helps decision-makers explore different future conditions before choosing measures or investments. These solutions will be addressed in the National Adaptation Strategies for Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten, which are already under development.

Partners
The scenarios were developed by the IPDC and its partner organisations: the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Departamento Meteorológico Aruba (DMA), Meteorological Department Curaçao (MDC), Meteorological Department Sint Maarten (MDS), as well as the Governments of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The IPDC is an initiative funded by the Government of the Netherlands.

For more information or to download the new publications, please visit:

https://ipdc-climate-action.org/resources/new-climate-scenarios-for-evidence-based-climate-action-on-aruba-curacao-and-sint-maarten/

~"Born Here & Born to Be Here" Legislation to end uncertainty for St. Maarten’s undocumented youth~

PHILIPSBURG:---  In a passionate address to Parliament, Member of Parliament and Leader of the United People’s Party, Omar E.C. Ottley, presented a landmark legislative initiative designed to resolve the legal limbo facing thousands of children born in St. Maarten.

The draft legislation, themed “Born Here & Born to Be Here,” proposes critical amendments to the National Ordinance on admission and expulsion. It aims to formalize the rights of children who, despite being born and raised on the island, remain undocumented and marginalized due to gaps in the current legal framework.

A Crisis of Identity and Opportunity

The urgency of the legislation is underscored by data from a 2020 UNICEF report, which estimates that approximately 20% of the island's child population is undocumented. MP Ottley emphasized that this issue is not about opening the floodgates for general immigration but is strictly focused on children born on St. Maarten soil.

"I realized that every member of Parliament who spoke, the door was cracked open, and everybody wanted to bust through and wanted me to fix every immigration problem. That's not the essence of this article," Ottley clarified during the parliamentary debate. "We are dealing with children born in St. Martin to foreign parents."

Ottley shared real-life examples of the human cost of this bureaucratic invisibility:

• Shemar, a 15-year-old boxer, is unable to represent his country in regional tournaments because he lacks identification.

• Amber, an 18-year-old graduate, was blocked from pursuing higher education in the Netherlands.

• Jean, a 16-year-old who remains undocumented despite his parents working on the island for 15 years, is simply because an employer missed a permit renewal deadline.

The Proposed Solutions

The draft law introduces a two-pronged approach to provide pathways to residency while addressing concerns about "anchor babies" and ensuring parental contribution to society.

1. Educational Consistency Over "Continuous Admission" (Article 3'i ‘i’)
Currently, children born to non-Dutch parents can gain residency at age 16 if they have been "continuously admitted." The proposed amendment lowers this age to 10.

Crucially, it removes the vague requirement of "admission," which often penalizes children for their parents' administrative lapses. Instead, the focus shifts to the child's presence. Ottley explained that this change is "solely based on educational consistency." If a child can prove they have lived and attended school in St. Maarten since birth, they become eligible. "The parent does not affect that," Ottley stated, ensuring children are not punished for the status of their guardians.

2. Rewarding Contribution (Article 3 ‘j’)
To address concerns raised by colleagues, such as MP De Weever's regarding "anchor babies," the legislation imposes a strict requirement on parents. This new pathway grants immediate residency to a child born in St. Maarten only if the parents have fulfilled tax obligations—including income tax and social premiums—for 10 consecutive years before the child's birth.

You have been here, contributed, you made that child, that child will receive immediate residency," Ottley argued. This provision ensures that the law benefits families who are deeply invested in the island's economy and society.

Overcoming Political and Bureaucratic Hurdles

During his presentation, MP Ottley expressed frustration with the lack of available government data and the slow pace of the legislative process. He noted that, while he requested data on stateless versus undocumented populations from the Prime Minister and relevant ministries, the responses were ofOttley also addressed the friction regarding the law's timeline, pushing back against claims that the process was rushed. He highlighted that the draft was sent to the government in September and has been at the Social Economic Council (SER) for over a year.

"I do not play with the people's business," Ottley said, defending the thoroughness of his work. "We take the same money that I work for... and work tirelessly with my staff to create a law."

He urged his colleagues to look past political lines and focus on the legislation's intent. "Today is our official attempt to make the unwritten policy law to ensure that the rights of our children born here are protected."

A Question of Morality

The legislation represents a shift from discretionary ministerial policies to codified law. Ottley noted that while previous ministers have applied unwritten policies to help these children, such discretionary power leaves the youth vulnerable to the whims of changing administrations.

Closing his presentation with a call to conscience, MP Ottley stated, "A nation's morality is revealed by whose suffering it chooses to ignore. I will not be one to ignore the suffering of the people."