Philipsburg (DCOMM):--- At the mini conference that the Department of Economic Affairs, Transportation & Telecommunication (EVT) is having, the first annual Mini Caribbean Macro Economic Model Conference, external and internal stakeholders were given a presentation about the SMAART model and its constituent parts.
The SMAART model is a macroeconomic, excel based data-analysis tool that presents a comprehensive view of the St. Maarten economy, with the main tasks of analyzing, monitoring, and forecasting, including impact analysis.
The model is dependent on historical data and input from the internal and external stakeholders.
On the 3rd day of the conference, Lucy Richardson, Head of Department of Economy, Transportation & Telecommunication (EVT), welcomed the attendees gathered at Divi Little Bay Hotel, numbering about 40 persons, and provided an introduction and historical account of how the current economic model came to being, which had to be built from the ground up and personalized to the St. Maarten situation.
The aim as well is to fine-tune the Smaart model over time with better and more accurate data from the internal and external stakeholders. When this happens, we can predict with more certainty, Richardson said.
Present at the mini conference were members of the Ministries of Finance, Public Health, Social Development and Labor, the Departments of Statistics, Tourism, Receivers, along with external stakeholders and representatives of the Central Bank of Curacao and St. Maarten, St. Maarten Harbor Group of Companies, St. Maarten Hospitality & Trade Association, Chamber of Commerce & Industry, among others.
According to Richardson, it is the intention to train qualified personnel from other departments within Government to understand how the model works, and can assist them in their tasks. Several persons within the department of EVT are being trained in the mode to ensure continuality.
The attending audience received a demonstration by Erika Radjouki, Senior Policy Advisor, EVT, and Jude Houston, Statistician, EVT, on how the Smaart model works, and the stakeholders provided feedback to the presenters and designers (Modelers) of the model.
Several scenarios were demonstrated, after which the audience asked questions in relation to the accuracy of the model, the calibration of the model, adjustments, correlations, impact analyses, among other issues. One such demonstration showed that the model already predicted the 1.7 million cruise passenger arrival as early as August 2012.
It was made clear by the Secretary General, a.i., of the Ministry of Tourism, Economic Affairs, Transport & Telecommunication (TEZVT), Miguel de Weever, that the model dealt with predictions based on historical information. (It is not, and cannot be, a model that predicts with exactness, for the future is unpredictable by nature.) In addition, there are other external factors that affect the model—factors beyond the control of man, i.e., hurricane, world recession, etc. Therefore, expertise knowledge to interpret the results will also be required.
