As of early Sunday morning, convection (shower and t-storm activity) was displaced to the north of the circulation center due to a "wall of wind shear" near the Caribbean.
Wind shear can blow convection away from the center from a tropical cyclone. If strong enough, it can rip apart existing tropical cyclones. In addition, those increasing west to southwest winds aloft will transport more dry air into the circulation of Danny. This dry air is also stable, meaning it suppresses upward vertical columns of air needed to maintain or form new thunderstorms.
The large-scale atmosphere Danny has moved into, as well as its expected track over land areas of the Caribbean, will induce further weakening with time.
Even though Danny is weakening, numerous tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for the northeast Caribbean islands. Additional watches may be issued soon for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Danny remains a tiny tropical cyclone, with tropical storm-force winds extending up to only about 60 miles from the center of circulation. Comparisons were made Thursday to the much larger west Pacific typhoons Goni and Atsani.
(INTERACTIVE: Satellite Loop of Danny)
While weakening, Danny will move generally toward the west-northwest the next several days. Our latest forecast indicates the center of Danny would approach the Leeward Islands sometime early Monday morning, most likely as a tropical storm.
Given Danny's small wind field, the exact track of the center of circulation will determine who will see tropical storm-force winds in the Leewards Monday.
A weakening Danny would then continue toward the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispanola Tuesday into Wednesday. It is possible that Danny may be a tropically depression or even a remnant low by that time.
Danny Rainfall Outlook
That said, it seems probable at least some bands of locally heavy rain will wrap into parts of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. This could end up being too much of a good thing in the drought-stricken region.
Click here to get constant update on Tropical Storm Danny.
