- Jerry is strengthening in the Atlantic Ocean.
- Jerry became a hurricane Thursday morning.
- Jerry is likely to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands, where tropical storm watches are in effect.
- It's too early to determine if those islands will receive any direct impacts from Jerry.
Hurricane Jerry is intensifying in the Atlantic and will likely move near or north of the Leeward Islands later this week.
Jerry is currently centered more than 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is tracking west-northwestward.
Current Storm Status
(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)
Jerry will likely continue to intensify through into Friday before wind shear will increase, which will start a slow weakening trend this weekend.
Jerry is currently forecast to track near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday as a hurricane, then north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for the islands of Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius in the northern Leeward Islands. This means tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Watches and Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
Even though Jerry will most likely track north of these islands, they could experience tropical storm conditions by early Friday. Moderate wind shear is expected to limit intensification late this week and into this weekend.
This system is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches – with isolated spots receiving up to 6 inches – across the northern Leeward Islands. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum totals of up to 3 inches.
Even if Jerry tracks well north of the islands, it will still generate swells that will affect portions of northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)
The National Hurricane Center is predicting that Jerry will most likely angle toward the northwest by late in the weekend, then toward the north early next week.
It's still too soon to predict with confidence whether or not Jerry will affect the Bahamas, Turks, and Caicos, Bermuda or the mainland United States.
HURRICANE JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING…
Location: Lat. 17.5 N, Lon. 55.8 W
About: 484 miles…779 km ESE of St. Maarten
Maximum sustained winds: 90 mph…150 km/h
Present Movement: WNW...295 degrees at 17 mph…28 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb…28.91 inches
DISCUSSION AND 24-HOUR OUTLOOK
Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest, with this general motion at a decreasing forward speed expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass approximately 150 miles to the north-northeast of St. Maarten on Friday night. Tropical storm effects of Jerry will begin on St. Maarten by Friday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).
Residents and the general public should put plans in place and continue to be alert and monitor the progress of this system.
The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor this system and issue special weather bulletins.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR ST. MAARTEN:
Rainfall: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. Some rainfall is possible later tonight into early Friday with most of the significant showers expected by late Friday into Saturday. Flooding and/or rock slides are possible in flood-prone areas and along hillsides. Residents and users of these areas are advised to be vigilant.
Winds: Gusty winds could accompany showers Friday through Saturday. From Friday evening it is possible for storm force gusts to be experienced as the systems move north of the local area.
Seas: Swells up to 12 feet are possible during the passage of Hurricane Jerry, mainly along the north and eastern shores. A gradual deterioration in sea conditions can be expected from tonight and will be more visible by Friday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Beach erosion is possible in vulnerable areas. Sea-bathers are advised to stay away from the sea during the passage of Jerry.
