~CBCS hosted a symposium with key economic stakeholders~
Willemstad/Philipsburg:--- On January 19, 2024, the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS) hosted the symposium “Fostering the Right Balance”, which focused on the vulnerabilities of the balance of payments of small economies. In his opening remarks, the Executive Director of the CBCS, dr. José Jardim highlighted some common characteristics that Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten share with regard to the balance of payments: “All three countries are relatively small, have a high degree of trade openness, have relatively high tourism export ratios, and are very dependent on merchandise imports. The countries also face a structural deficit in their trade balance”. “The balance of payments provides important insights into a country’s international position and reflects the stance of the domestic economy as well. Not only does it tell us how an external imbalance is financed but also the roots of that imbalance: either private investments exceed domestic private savings or fiscal policy is expansionary. So, if a country runs external imbalances, its domestic components are not in balance either, dr. Jardim added.
Against this background, the balance of payments of these countries is very vulnerable to external shocks. Therefore, the countries need to address vulnerabilities in the balance of payments to maintain external stability. The balance of payments is crucial for monetary policy.
Hence, the CBCS hosted the symposium with the aim to provide more insights and to exchange views on the complexities and vulnerabilities of the balance of payments of particularly the monetary union of Curaçao and Sint Maarten.
The symposium consisted of two presentations on research being conducted by CBCS’ staff.
Based on the preliminary findings of their research on the real contribution of tourism to the balance of payments of Curaçao and Sint Maarten, dr. Shekinah Dare and Mr. Christopher Rigaud indicated that every dollar earned from international tourism in Sint Maarten induces almost 62 dollar cents in additional imports, substantially lowering the net contribution of international tourism to the island. The empirical results fail to find the same evidence for Curaçao. While there is proof of a relationship between the two, international tourism does not seem to be inducing additional merchandise imports. This might be related to the higher diversification of the economy of Curaçao and the type of tourists visiting the islands. Contrary to Sint Maarten, Curaçao’s tourism is not shopping but experience-focused. Dr. Dare and Mr. Rigaud recommend that the countries apply a balanced approach focusing on further developing other (high potential) sectors alongside international tourism, such as the renewable energy sector in Curaçao and the logistics industry in Sint Maarten.
Meanwhile, the presentation of Ms. Candice Henriquez and Mr. Robert Hieroms focused on the exposure of the balance of payments to external shocks, particularly oil price shocks and euro price fluctuations. According to the preliminary findings from their research, an oil price shock can have a persistent negative effect on the balance of payments of oil-importing economies such as Curaçao and Sint Maarten. It seems to take more than two years to get back to the pre-shock level. Hence, the countries should step up their policy efforts to make the economies of Curaçao and Sint Maarten less dependent on fossil fuels which includes the transition to alternative energy sources. Euro price fluctuations also affect the balance of payments of the monetary union, although Curaçao is more vulnerable to these fluctuations than Sint Maarten. Curaçao’s tourism sector has a relatively high exposure to changes in the value of the euro vis-à-vis the guilder. Therefore, diversification of the economies towards other non-euro economies would make the balance of payments, particularly in Curaçao, less vulnerable to euro price fluctuations.
The symposium included an expert panel discussion chaired by Mr. Alberto Romero. Members of the panel included Ms. Zulaika Mook from the Ministry of Economic Development of Curaçao, Mr. Hugo Clarinda from the Curaçao Tourist Board, Mr. Eugene Holiday, former governor of Sint Maarten, Mr. Koert van Buiren from Economisch Bureau Amsterdam, dr. Yamil Lasten, CEO of the Curoil Group, and dr. Stella van Rijn from the Ministry of General Affairs of Curaçao.
All the presentations are available on the CBCS website at https://www.centralbank.cw/publications/speeches-presentations.
Willemstad, January 24, 2024
CENTRALE BANK VAN CURAÇAO EN SINT MAARTEN
