PHILIPSBURG:--- On December 16, 2025, the International Panel on Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC), on behalf of partner organisations, including the Ministry of VROMI (Public Housing, Spatial Planning, Environment & Infrastructure), announced the publication of new climate scenarios for Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. Based on scientific data, the scenarios have been designed for 2050 and 2100, and serve to inspire the design of climate adaptation measures and the development of national climate adaptation plans. The publication is the result of a unique collaboration between the national meteorological services of Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten, and the Netherlands.
The scenarios are part of the IPDC’s latest project in the Dutch Caribbean, focused on climate scenarios and digitisation. They will be presented to local authorities in upcoming workshops in Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The project also digitizes historical meteorological data, making past weather information easier to access and use in future climate research.
Background
In recent decades, the world has experienced changes in global mean temperatures driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions. These changes affect people worldwide, including those on small islands such as Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. It is therefore crucial to understand what further climate change may be expected in the remainder of this century.
What will the climate of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten look like in 2050 and 2100?
Climate scenarios have been developed for 2050 and 2100. They have been specifically tailored to the unique local circumstances of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The climate scenarios show how key climate factors may change, such as temperature, wind speed, rainfall, and sea level.
Due to uncertainty in future global climate change, the scenarios present possible outcomes based on key assumptions for global emissions (such as low, mid, and high global emissions) and for regional rainfall (such as a ‘dry’ or a ‘wet’ future). The scenarios do not give probabilities, but the range helps decision-makers see possible risks and plan ahead. The scenarios are presented in a technical report and a user report. The user report explains the main findings in clear language and figures, making the results more accessible to more people. They also support climate adaptation planning and contribute to the National Adaptation Strategies of Aruba, Curaça,o and Sint Maarten.
Temperatures set to rise
The climate scenarios show that temperatures will continue to rise. In global high-emission scenarios, the average annual temperatures could increase by up to +1.3 degrees Celsius by around 2050, and up to +3.3 degrees Celsius by around 2100. In this scenario, the coldest months, December to February, will be warmer than the current warmest months. On the other hand, in global low-emission scenarios the temperature increase can be up to +0.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. This difference shows the major impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on our local climate.
Rainfall and drought
Besides temperature change, the scenarios indicate that there may be less rainfall in the future. In the most severe scenarios, average rainfall could be reduced by half by the end of the century compared to today. The more favorable scenarios show only minor drying, and in the case of Sint Maarten, some scenarios even project a slight rainfall increase. This drying trend may result in a longer dry season and less rainfall during the rainy season.
A rising sea level
In the long term, beyond 2100, sea levels driven by global ice melt and other factors could certainly rise by more than 1 meter, even if greenhouse gas emissions were to increase now. Although the sea level rise in the various scenarios will be close together around 2050, there can be strong differences by 2100. This difference once again illustrates the major impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on our local environment.
A call for climate action
The new climate scenarios are not a call to despair but a call to climate action. The range of scenario outputs illustrates the relevance of limiting worldwide greenhouse gas emissions for small islands such as Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. At the local level, the output range provides valuable insights into potential local effects of climate change and helps decision-makers explore different future conditions before choosing measures or investments. These solutions will be addressed in the National Adaptation Strategies for Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten, which are already under development.
Partners
The scenarios were developed by the IPDC and its partner organisations: the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Departamento Meteorológico Aruba (DMA), Meteorological Department Curaçao (MDC), Meteorological Department Sint Maarten (MDS), as well as the Governments of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The IPDC is an initiative funded by the Government of the Netherlands.
For more information or to download the new publications, please visit:
https://ipdc-climate-action.org/resources/new-climate-scenarios-for-evidence-based-climate-action-on-aruba-curacao-and-sint-maarten/




~"Born Here & Born to Be Here" Legislation to end uncertainty for St. Maarten’s undocumented youth~
PHILIPSBURG:--- During a Question Hour initiated by Member of Parliament Egbert J. Doran, it was confirmed that although Parliament passed a motion proposed by MP Doran calling for monthly financial support for displaced Philipsburg Marketplace vendors based on minimum wage considerations, the relief implemented by the Minister of TEATT, Grisha Heyliger Marten, amounts to 100 guilders per month per vendor through waived fees.
PHILIPSBURG:--- In a parliamentary session yesterday, Minister of Finance Marinka Gumbs took the floor to address ongoing concerns surrounding the draft National Ordinance on Basic Payment Accounts. While the Minister presented updates on financial matters, including the much-touted 30.3 million guilder CAPEX loan, her appearance left many questions unanswered and raised eyebrows over the handling of critical issues.
PHILIPSBURG:--- The Police Force of Sint Maarten (KPSM) is investigating an incident that occurred just before 3:30 PM on Front Street during a routine police patrol.





